The hottest steel price may rise moderately after

Steel prices may rise moderately after shock consolidation

in the first half of the year, domestic steel prices rose first and then fell, and the prices went out of the roller coaster like market. The price fluctuations of the main steel varieties with two backup rollers exceeded 60%. In the twinkling of an eye, what is the trend of steel prices in the later period? In this regard, Shen Yibing, a senior analyst, pointed out that the steel market price in the later stage may rise moderately after shock consolidation. Inventories fell for five consecutive weeks. As of June 24, according to statistics, the total inventory of rebar in 35 cities across the country was 3.8872 million tons, a decrease of 178900 tons or about 4.39% compared with last week. The total inventory of five major varieties of rebar, wire rod, medium and heavy plate, hot rolled coil and cold rolled coil in China was 8.2985 million tons, a decrease of 131800 tons from last week, a decrease of about 1.56%. On the whole, the national steel market inventory has decreased for the fifth consecutive week. At present, the national steel inventory level can be compared with the protection method of the hydraulic jaw of the tensile testing machine above the same period last year: 11.875 million tons, a decrease of 3.5765 million tons, a decrease of about 30.12%

it is worth noting that the current rebar warehouse stock decreased by 2.4347 million tons, or about 38.51%, compared with 6.3219 million tons in the same period last year. Due to the recent high price difference between rebar and plate, most steel mills give priority to the production of plate in terms of production scheduling, which has a certain impact on the market supply pattern. The arrival volume of rebar in all mainstream markets is small, and the price trend of rebar is obviously stronger

market transactions have improved. With the stabilization and recovery of steel prices, the overall transaction situation of the market also improved last week. According to Mysteel, the national building materials trading volume data showed an overall upward trend. Shen Yibing believes that recently, the state has announced a large number of infrastructure projects, plus the infrastructure projects accumulated in the previous two years. If the expected demand can be changed into actual demand in the second half of the year, it will drive the rise of steel demand, thus promoting the rise of steel prices

on June 24, brexit of the UK was a foregone conclusion. Affected by this, the international capital market ushered in "Black Friday" last week, with U.S. stocks, European stocks and oil prices plummeting, the U.S. dollar index soaring, and gold rising sharply. Although China's steel exports to the UK are very small, according to incomplete statistics, the total steel exports to the UK in 2015 accounted for 0.72% of China's total steel exports in 2015. However, it is worth noting that the economic impact of brexit on the EU may affect China's exports, especially once the EU tends to adopt trade protection policies, it will affect China EU bilateral trade and have an indirect impact on China's steel exports. In addition, the depreciation of sterling after brexit will lead to the appreciation of the US dollar, and then drive the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar. On the one hand, the appreciation of the US dollar will be bad for the price trend of global commodities, including steel; On the other hand, the rising pressure of domestic capital outflows and the increasing pressure of RMB devaluation may be particularly applicable to laboratories that continuously do impact experiments and departments such as metallurgy and machinery manufacturing that do a large number of impact experiments; This will lead to changes in the monetary policy of the central bank, which will also have a certain impact on the trend of steel

on June 26, the listed companies WISCO and Baosteel issued an announcement at the same time, saying that they were planning strategic restructuring, and their trading was suspended at the same time from June 27. This can be said to be a heavy "bomb" in the steel market, and it is also a major substantive action to reduce production capacity in the steel industry since the supply side structural reform was proposed. At the beginning of February this year, the State Council issued the "opinions on resolving excess capacity in the iron and steel industry and achieving poverty relief and development" and proposed that, on the basis of eliminating backward iron and steel production capacity in recent years, from this year, it will take five years to reduce crude steel production capacity by 100million to 150million tons, industrial mergers and acquisitions have made substantial progress, and the industrial structure has been optimized. "De capacity" will be one of the important issues that the iron and steel industry will face during the 13th Five Year Plan period. The merger of Baosteel and WISCO is the industry first, which will also have a corresponding positive impact on the long-term sluggish steel trend

as we all know, the change of steel price is still subject to the balance between supply and demand, especially the demand factor will be the key factor to determine the steel price in the second half of the year. On the whole, Shen Yibing believes that the steel market price in the later stage may rise moderately after shock consolidation