The hottest steel price remains strong, but the up

2022-08-17
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Steel prices remain strong but the upper space is limited

steel prices remain strong but the upper space is limited

China Construction machinery information

steel prices: on Monday (March 4, the same below), the billet is stable to 3500 yuan/ton, on Monday, Shanghai thread rose 20 to 3880 yuan/ton, hot rolling rose 20 to 3870 yuan/ton, and the coil spot is close to flat water. Profit: the profit improved month on month, with the profits of disk thread and hot rolling of 247 yuan/ton and 377 yuan/ton respectively. Recently, scrap prices have remained strong, and the cost of electric furnaces is higher than that of blast furnace ironmaking. However, with the resumption of work after the holiday, Wuxi has set up a special fund of 200million yuan for electric furnaces, and the start-up has increased significantly. The profit per ton of thread and hot-rolled spot long process steel is 97 yuan and 218 yuan respectively

output: the output will contract rhythmically in March. Tangshan and Handan will be upgraded from March 1 to March 31, which is expected to affect the production of 6million tons of molten iron. In addition, the start-up of short process electric furnaces is on the rise. Assuming that the start-up recovers to more than 60%, it is expected to increase the output of 10000 tons, and the reduction of output at the national level is not obvious, but the increase of electric furnace production is nationwide, and the production restriction is mainly concentrated in North China. It is expected that why the price of testing machines is different in North China and East China? Regional spot prices are supported. Inventory: the growth rate of inventory fell last week, down year-on-year. It is expected to enter the stock removal stage next week. At present, the screw thread inventory is 13.59 million tons, with a month on month increase of 560000 tons (4%), a year-on-year decrease of 5%, and the hot rolling inventory is 371 The experimental device includes 10000 tons of heating furnace, sample rack, air flow hood, thermocouple, voltage stabilizer, voltage regulator, control instrument and temperature recorder, with a month on month increase of 40000 tons (1%) and a year-on-year decrease of 3%. Basis: 05 contract thread discount spot 69 yuan/ton, 1.8%, hot-rolled discount spot 79 yuan/ton, 2%. In October, the thread discount is 286 yuan/ton 7.9%, hot rolling discount 298 yuan 8. Achieve secularization and moderation of Islamic political parties by 34%. At present, the futures price discount is medium to low, and it is about to enter the de stocking stage. The futures are linked, and the basis will remain narrow in the later period

market prediction: at present, in the case of spot fundamentals with high production and high inventory, the disk is still continuing the logic of high demand expectations. At present, the large-scale new construction caused by the acceleration of real estate construction will continue, because the absolute amount of land inventory of the current real estate is still high, and the logic of steel consumption demand caused by the upward growth of new construction will continue. At the same time, the marginal relaxation of real estate regulation and monetary policy will make the real estate sales end stable, which is conducive to guiding the market to improve demand expectations and supporting the strong operation of steel prices. But the main risk is that the steel price rose from the low point in December to around 3800, which has digested most of the expected benefits. In recent years, the market has been "buying expectations and selling reality". Next week, the inventory will enter the destocking stage, and the superposition of the two sessions will be held. If the industrial side or the policy side does not meet expectations, it will affect the weakening of the high steel price. At the same time, the first quarter is in a data vacuum, and the growth rate of real estate investment and sales data to be released are expected to maintain a downward trend. When the expectation is digested, there may be pressure to return to reality, and there is pressure near the early high of 4000 steel prices

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