The hottest cement, the speed of capital construct

2022-07-26
  • Detail

It is expected that the prosperity of the cement industry in the second half of the year will be better than that in the first half, and the annual output growth can reach 15%. The infrastructure pull effect will continue and be better than that in the first half of the year. The recovery of real estate investment will drive the cement demand to grow faster than expected

it is expected that the glass industry will still operate at a low level in the second half of the year, and building energy conservation and photovoltaic glass will still be the investment themes. The cement industry was rated as "stronger than the big market" and the glass industry as "neutral"

cement: the output exceeded the expectation

the downstream demand for cement is mainly divided into three aspects: infrastructure, real estate and new rural construction. This year, the cement price hit the bottom in February and March. The explosive growth of infrastructure investment has become the main driving force for the warming of the cement industry. In June, the urban fixed asset investment increased by 32 year-on-year. 9%, up from 25% in the same period last year. 6%。 Over the same period, real estate investment increased by only 6% year-on-year. 8%, the growth rate dropped by 24. 9%, making little contribution to the growth of cement demand

from a regional perspective, the growth rate of cement production in the central and western regions with high growth rate of fixed asset investment and tight supply is significantly higher than the national average, while the cement demand in the eastern region is still sluggish due to low investment

outlook of the cement industry in the second half of the year: the rebound in real estate investment is expected to drive the cement demand beyond expectations

it is estimated that in the second half of the year, the prosperity of the cement industry will be better than that in the first half of the year, and the annual output growth rate can reach 15%. Infrastructure construction and new rural construction have clearly driven the demand for building materials, while the recovery of real estate investment may drive the demand for building materials to grow faster than expected. The infrastructure pull effect continues to deepen, and the demand is expected to be better than that in the first half of the year

the situation of overcapacity may intensify. In June, the new capacity of the national cement industry increased by 91 year-on-year. 72%。 Among them, Sichuan accounts for 13% of the country's new production capacity. The regional oversupply has led to a decline in Sichuan cement prices since the end of April. In terms of sub regions, the investment growth rate of cement industry in Northeast, East and Central South regions is lower than the national average, and the future supply and demand situation is relatively optimistic. It is estimated that the cement production capacity increment in 2009 will not exceed 2. 500million tons, an increase of about 25% over last year. The supply risk in the second half of the year is less than that in the first half, but the situation of excess cement capacity will intensify in 2010. Industry reshuffle is inevitable, which is good for large cement enterprises

glass: the theme of building energy conservation

high work efficiency

the glass industry was still recovering at the bottom in the first half of the year. From the perspective of glass product price, the price fluctuation of ordinary flat glass is still as large as 1 ton or more, but the float glass shows signs of stopping falling and stabilizing for three consecutive months. At the same time last year, the price of lithium carbonate in foreign countries gradually rose. Since the fourth quarter, more than 40 float glass production lines have been shut down on a large scale, and the inventory of enterprises has decreased for five consecutive months

prospects of glass industry in the second half of the year: building energy conservation and photovoltaic glass will still be the investment theme

the prosperity of flat glass has bottomed out and the rising trend can be basically established. From the perspective of demand, although there are positive expectations, it is expected that with the improvement of the market, the glass production lines that have stopped production will gradually resume production. At present, there are about 250 glass production lines, and the resumption of production of 40 production lines can increase the existing capacity by about 20%. The oversupply situation will depress the industry profits

the supply gap of building energy-saving glass is still large. The utilization rate of energy-saving glass in China is less than 10%. As the Low-E glass with the best energy-saving effect, there is still a big gap between China and developed countries. The energy-saving glass market has started, and there is huge demand in the future. During the 11th Five Year Plan period, China will add 2.1 billion square meters of new buildings and renovate 3.8 billion square meters of old buildings. The total consumption of energy-saving consumables will exceed 4trillion yuan. In the next ten years, the state will spend as much as 5trillion yuan on energy-saving subsidies, conventional consumption and the purchase of energy-saving products. Even if only 5% is used for building energy-saving glass, doors and windows, it will reach 250billion yuan. China's Low-E glass production lines are mainly concentrated in CSG, yaopi glass, Fuyao Glass and other production enterprises

the Chinese version of "solar roof plan" will promote the rapid development of photovoltaic glass demand. The domestic solar energy industry is a high-profile industry. However, affected by the global economic crisis, it has entered a period of adjustment. It is estimated that the growth rates in 2009 and 2010 will be -15% and 20%

investment strategy

real estate investment has become a key factor affecting the recovery of the building materials industry and the market trend. It is expected that the recovery of the project investment of 340.6 million yuan in the commissioning of the real estate investment in the second half of the year will become a high probability event, giving the cement industry "stronger than the market" and the glass industry "neutral" investment ratings

cement industry: the real estate recovery in the eastern region is flexible, and the central and western regions are greatly driven by infrastructure. Two types of companies are mainly recommended: first, conch cement, Yatai group, tapai group, Jidong Cement and Huaxin Cement, which are Middle Eastern companies with integration ability, whose demand is greatly driven by the recovery of real estate investment and whose new supply pressure is small. 2、 Leading regions in advantageous regions (benefiting greatly from this round of infrastructure construction plan) with good supply and demand, such as horse racing industry, Qilian Mountain, etc

glass industry: it will take time for the demand to recover. However, the state promotes energy conservation and emission reduction policies. Listed companies that are closely related to building energy conservation and photoelectric building integration will have trading opportunities, and continue to be optimistic about CSG, AVIC Sanxin and Jinjing technology

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI