Current situation, development and Countermeasures

The current situation, development and Countermeasures of China's corrugated box industry (I)

recently, newspapers, magazines, networks and other media have expressed many views on the current situation of China's corrugated box industry, the most prominent of which is to expose problems and give warnings to our corrugated box industry. After reading it, many readers feel a little confused, and even worry about the future of China's carton industry. This mood is understandable, but I advise colleagues not to be too pessimistic on this issue. In my opinion, the current situation of China's carton industry can be summarized in 12 words, that is, "rapid development, overcapacity, bright future"

(I) the rapid development of China's corrugated box industry

the fastest development of China's carton industry is from 1995 to the present 10 years, before which, the development speed has never been so fast. Before the 1980s, China's carton industry used single machine production, that is, glue applicators, paper laminating machines, single tile machines, etc. the output of these equipment was very low, and it was actually in a semi manual production state

from the late 1980s to the early 1990s, the state implemented the policy of issuing "licenses". At that time, entrusted by the State Bureau of technical supervision, China National Packaging Corporation and packaging technology associations all over the country issued carton production licenses. One of the most obvious and influential regulations on the issue of production license is that the carton manufacturer must have at least one single-sided machine in order to obtain the carton production license. In this way, it has played a great role in promoting the popularity of single-sided machines. At that time, carton factories everywhere, whether you use it or not, as long as there is no large line, you must buy a single-sided machine to obtain the carton production license, otherwise, you will not be able to start work. Therefore, from the 1980s to the early 1990s, the popularity of single-sided machines was very fast, and manufacturers of single-sided machines also took the opportunity to make a fortune. At that time, carton machines were all fragrant pastries, which were not as hard to sell as they are now

we can make a simple comparison between the improvement of domestic carton production capacity and the world at the same time. The world's corrugated board production situation: since 1995, the world's corrugated board production has increased year by year. In 1995, the world output of corrugated board was 110.4 billion square meters; In 2000, it was 125.3 billion square meters; In 2003, it was 139.5 billion square meters. In these eight years, the overall growth rate in the first five years was 13%, with an average annual growth rate of 2%; The overall growth rate in the next three years is 11%, with an average annual growth rate of 3%. According to the statistics of the International Corrugated Box Association: in 2000, the top three corrugated board production on all continents in the world were: North America, accounting for about 34% of the world's total output; Asia accounts for about 31% of the world's total output, and China accounts for the largest proportion in both natural rubber and synthetic rubber markets; Europe accounts for about 27% of the world's total output. By 2003, the ranking of the top three corrugated board output of all continents in the world had changed, and Asia ranked first, accounting for about 33.5% of the world's total output; North America fell to the second place, accounting for about 29.6% of the world's total output; Europe is still in the third place, accounting for about 29.3% of the world's total output. Before 2003, the output of corrugated board has always been the first in North America, but why has it ranked second since 2003? The main reason is the rapid growth of corrugated board production in China

the output of corrugated board in China was 7.4 billion square meters in 1995; In 2000, it rose to 12.3 billion square meters; In 2003, it reached 5.8 billion square meters, accounting for 34% of the total output in Asia and 11.3% of the total output in the world. Now, the annual output of corrugated board in China has passed that of Japan, only slightly less than that of the United States, ranking second in the world. Please note that the above is "output". As for the production capacity of corrugated board in China, it is not the second in the world, but the first in the world. At present, China's corrugated board production capacity is far from being used. If it is brought into normal play, the annual output of corrugated board in China can reach 23billion square meters

we can compare the development speed of corrugated box production in China from 1995 to 2003. The film is getting thinner and thinner with the development speed of the world in the same period: from 1995 to 2000, the output of corrugated board in China increased by 70%, that is, the average annual growth rate is 12%, and the world growth rate is 2%; In the last three years, from 2000 to 2003, the output of corrugated board in China increased by 30%, with an average annual growth rate of 9% and the world growth rate of 3%

the production and sales volume of corrugated board in China was 8billion square meters in 1996, only half that of Japan; In 2003, the production and sales volume of corrugated board in China was 15.8 billion square meters, surpassing Japan. It is estimated that by 2008, the production and sales of corrugated board in China will reach 20billion square meters; During this period, it is expected that Japan's corrugated board production and sales will not grow, but may shrink, and can only be maintained at about 13.5 billion square meters. In recent years, the production and sales of corrugated board in Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Taiwan Province of China have all experienced negative growth. To sum up, China's carton industry is a high-speed growth industry, and still has a broad space for development

(II) the overcapacity and benefits of the carton industry have declined

we should admit that in the process of overall rapid development, there are some obvious problems in China's carton industry at present. Among them, the most prominent point is overcapacity. As a result, the competition in the sales market is fierce and the economic benefits of enterprises decline. Although the carton industry is a fast-growing and dynamic industry, this irregular, uncontrolled and blind rapid growth has also brought many troubles

the development of carton industry should match the local economic situation and product structure

because the carton industry serves other industries and is supporting others, especially for light industrial products, such as clothing, shoes and hats, food and beverage, tobacco, alcohol, sugar and tea, household appliances, etc., it has to rely on others' living conditions. It also emphasizes the specific migration limit and specific migration total limit of additives, monomers and other initiators in materials. Only when people live happily and freely can they live happily and freely. If people are depressed, they will not prosper anyway

according to the investigation, understanding and some data provided by the relevant departments of Guangdong Province, every five light industrial enterprises in the province need one carton packaging enterprise to support. This shows that the development of carton industry is closely related to the local economic development. Guangdong Province is one of the economically developed regions in China. The local household appliances, food and beverage, clothing leather, children's toys and other industries are very developed. Therefore, there is a huge demand for carton packaging. In contrast, in some inland areas of China, the economy is underdeveloped, especially the lack of light industry. There are too few things that need to be packed in cartons, so it is impossible to build many carton factories

the development of the carton industry in a country and region matches its overall economic situation and product structure. The development speed of the carton industry should be synchronized with the economic development speed of the country and region. It is normal to be a little faster, but it can't be too fast, too fast may have adverse consequences. At present, the development of corrugated box industry in China has a certain blindness and excess production capacity. I don't think it's surprising that this is an inevitable phenomenon in the process of economic development. Why do you say so? Because China is now in the transition period from a planned economy to a market economy, the market economic system is not very perfect, and it is difficult to avoid the phenomenon of blind and swarm expansion of production capacity without an organization to effectively coordinate, manage and stop it. With the improvement of market economic system and laws and regulations, everything will tend to be normal; Moreover, market economy itself is an irresistible and invisible hand. It will make wise choices and eliminate, and finally solve this problem