Current situation, Dilemma and future development

The current situation, difficulties and future development trend of corrugated boxes (I)

rapid development of overproduction

the development of China's carton industry has been a period of rapid development since 1995, and then it will enter a primary industrialization stage. Before the 1980s, the carton industry was very backward, and the production of single machines was in a semi manual state. The equipment was poor, the output was low, the quality was poor, and the labor intensity was high. Since the 1990s, the backward situation has been gradually changed

in 1995, the number of corrugated board production lines in China was about 600, increased to 1600 in 2000, increased by 1000 in five years, and nearly reached 4000 in 2004, that is to say, the existing corrugated board production lines in China increased by about 6 ~ 7 times compared with 1995

the output of corrugated board in the world is increasing year by year. In 1995, the world's corrugated board output was 114 billion m2 and 125.3 billion m2 in 2000, with an overall growth rate of 13% in these five years

according to the statistics of the International Corrugated Box Association, the top three corrugated box output of all continents in the world in 2000 were North America, Asia and Europe, which accounted for about 34%, 31% and 27% of the world's total output respectively. By 2003, the ranking of the top three corrugated board output of all continents in the world had changed. Asia ranked first, accounting for about 33.5% of the world's total output, North America fell to the second, accounting for about 29.6% of the world's total output, and Europe ranked third, accounting for about 29.3% of the world's total output. Until 2003, the output of corrugated board has been the first in North America, but why has it retreated to the second place since 2003? The main reason is the rapid growth of corrugated board production in China

the output of corrugated board in China was 7.4 billion m2 in 1995, increased to 12.3 billion m2 in 2000, and reached 15.8 billion m2 in 2003. The annual output of corrugated board has surpassed that of Japan, only slightly less than that of the United States, ranking second in the world. In fact, China's corrugated board production capacity is far from being brought into play. If it is brought into normal play, the annual output can reach 23billion m2

we can compare the development speed of corrugated board production in China from 1995 to 2003 with that of the world at the same time: from 1995 to 2000, the output of corrugated board in China increased by 70%, that is, the average annual growth rate was 12%, the world growth rate was 2%, and the next three years, that is, from 2000 to 2003, the output of corrugated board in China increased by 30%, the average annual growth rate was 10%, and the world growth rate was 3%

the production and sales volume of corrugated board in China was 8billion m2 in 1996, only half of that in Japan. In 2003, the production and sales volume of corrugated board in China was 15.8 billion m2, surpassing that in Japan. It is estimated that by 2008, the production and sales of corrugated board in China will reach 20billion m2, and the production and sales of corrugated board in Japan will not increase, but may shrink, and can only be maintained at 13.5 billion m2. In recent years, Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Taiwan all have a negative growth trend in the output of corrugated board. To sum up, China's carton industry is a rapidly growing industry, and still has a broad space for development

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we should admit that in the process of overall rapid development, there are obvious problems in China's carton industry at present, the most prominent of which is overcapacity, which makes the sales market get creep data from tensile tests carried out at high temperatures. The competition is fierce, It is mainly reflected in the decline of economic benefits of enterprises due to price competition, resulting in a situation of small profits, no profits and losses, which is unprofitable

the development of the carton industry in a country and a region matches its overall economy and product structure. The development speed of the carton industry should be synchronized with the economic development speed of the country and region. It is normal to be a little faster, but not too fast. Too fast may have adverse consequences. The development of China's carton industry has a certain blindness and excess production capacity, because China is now in the transition period from planned economy to market economy, and the market economic system is not very perfect. Some phenomena of blindly expanding production capacity in a swarm, without an organization to effectively coordinate, manage and stop, it is difficult to avoid its emergence. With the improvement of the market economic system and the improvement of laws and regulations, Everything will tend to be normal, and the market economy itself is irresistible, it will make wise choices and elimination

it is reported that the ratio of the national economy of today's developed countries to the development rate of corrugated box production capacity is 1:1.2, so corrugated boxes can maintain a good momentum of development. If the proportion is out of balance and develops too fast, problems will certainly occur. The economic growth rate of our country has been maintained at 8% for many years, and the production capacity of corrugated boxes in our country is much faster than that of the national economy. The actual average annual growth is at least 16%, and even more than 26% in some regions. That is to say, the production capacity of corrugated boxes in our country far exceeds the actual demand

analysis of reasons for overcapacity

the overcapacity of corrugated boxes in China shows the following aspects

1. The number of corrugated board production lines is too large and increases too fast. In 1995, there were about 600 corrugated lines in China. At that time, the output of corrugated board was 7.4 billion m2, and the average output of a line was 12 million m2; By 2000, the number of corrugated lines in China had increased to 1600, the output of corrugated board had increased to 12.3 billion m2, and the average annual output of one line had decreased to 08 million m2; By 2003, the number of tile wires in China had increased to 4000, and the output reached 15.8 billion m2. The average annual output of a production line has decreased to 04 million m2, which is only 1/3 of the output of a production line in 1995. Factors such as the speed-up and wide-ranging development of production lines in recent years have not been taken into account

China now has 4000 tile wires. What is this concept? It is more than twice as many as the total number of tiles owned by the United States, Japan and Europe that facilitate the connection with office and other office software. At present, the United States has about 600 Watt wires, Japan about 400, and Europe about 800. Of course, it's just a quantitative statistics. If we look at the running speed and production efficiency of the tile line, we are far worse than others. Because the United States, Japan and Europe are dominated by high-speed lines, while China still accounts for a large proportion of low-speed lines. Therefore, our production capacity cannot be more than twice that of the former. However, these 4000 lines have far exceeded our actual demand, which is more than 50% - 60%. In other words, only 2000 lines are needed for real work, and the remaining 2000 are resting there, while the average startup rate is only about 40% and about 80% in Shanghai

2. There are too many carton enterprises, especially small carton enterprises (tertiary factories)

I'm afraid no one can tell how many carton factories there are in China and in various provinces and cities. There are 158 carton factories in Zhaidian Town, Shanxi Province, and more than 60 in a town in Shanghai. It is conceivable that there are many carton factories in the country

it is roughly estimated that there are 100000 carton factories, large and small, across the country (excluding small workshops with less than 10 family members)

the first category has production line factories. There are 4000 corrugated board production lines across the country. It is estimated that there are more than 2000 large-scale carton factories and more than 90000 small enterprises (tertiary factories). These small factories are mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and the eastern coastal areas. There are thousands of carton factories in Zhejiang Province alone

the reasons for the overcapacity of carton production in China can be summarized as follows:

the first reason: during the social and economic transformation, money can be made. Everyone is on a nest peak. There is no organization to do this work, and the investment of small factories is relatively small. Some can set up a small factory with only fiveorsix people and no tile line

the second reason: in recent years, our industry has implemented the professional division of "centralized board decentralized box making", "centralized board decentralized box making" is undoubtedly an important step towards the professional division of cartons industry. 6. Damaged instruments and equipment should be inspected by professionals in the equipment center, and achieved obvious results. However, it also has certain side effects. Because there are too many tile lines, resulting in excess cardboard production capacity, and the next process, small carton factories feel that cardboard is cheap and it is profitable to make cartons. As a result, more and more carton factories are set up, resulting in mutual price pressure, resulting in a vicious cycle in the carton industry

third reason: the social division of labor is not clear. The more large cartons are used, the more reluctant the oil and water in cartoning is to give to others. For example, cigarette plants, distilleries, food factories, beverage factories, breweries, television factories and so on all run their own carton factories, including some paper mills. They also have their own reasons for doing so. First, considering that they provide supporting facilities for themselves, they are not restricted by the packaging factory; Second, considering that "fat and water do not flow out", it can generate income for itself and increase profits; Third, it is most important to consider the arrangement of surplus labor force of enterprises, laid-off workers and relatives

at present, the profit of the carton industry is declining, and there are many problems within the industry. The main problems are carton price competition, large loss of internal management base paper and serious arrears of accounts receivable

now carton users have higher and higher requirements for carton quality, but the price is getting lower and lower, which makes us feel like "squeezing oil". For example, for an ordinary carton, the accuracy requirements of overprint are very high, which is almost impossible. Many carton users, in order to reduce costs, have made plans to reduce packaging costs. Many large enterprises hold the so-called "bidding and ordering meeting", which actually means that a dozen carton factories are in rounds of price reduction competition. After several rounds of price reduction, the price has been pressed no lower. There is really no profit to make, but there is no work to do without taking over. This irregular and endless price reduction competition really puts a lot of pressure on the carton factory